First HDB price decline in seven years — but the headline is misleading
The HDB Resale Price Index for Q1 2026 came in at 203.4, down 0.1% from Q4 2025. That's the first quarterly decline since Q2 2019 — and almost every property news headline ran with it. We pulled the underlying data and found the story is messier than "prices are falling."
Three numbers, three different stories
Where the decline came from
A 0.1% drop on an index level of 203.4 is a swing of 0.2 index points. That's well inside seasonal noise, but the symbolism matters because it ends a seven-year run of consecutive increases. When you look at where the softness is concentrated, it's not a broad-based cooldown — it's a handful of mature estates and a slower flow of MOP supply in some towns.
The million-dollar HDB story keeps accelerating
While the index inched down, the high end did the opposite. 2025 saw 1,594 million-dollar HDB resale transactions — a record, and 54% above 2024's 1,035. The contradiction is partly explained by who's transacting: million-dollar flats are disproportionately in mature estates (Toa Payoh, Queenstown, Bukit Merah) while the wider market includes quieter outer-ring towns where prices have flatlined.
You can see this for yourself on Toa Payoh, Queenstown, and Tampines.
What to watch in Q2
- MOP supply. About 13,500 HDB flats reach their 5-year MOP in 2026, up from ~8,000 in 2025. More resale supply tends to soften prices.
- Million-dollar share. If the $1m flats keep growing as a share of total resales, the headline RPI will keep diverging from the top-of-market reality.
- Private vs HDB. Private residential rose 0.9% q-o-q. If the gap widens, more upgraders may sit on the fence.