Validation
Fair-value estimates vs later sales
Each test recreates an estimate using only transactions dated before a recorded sale, then compares that estimate with the sale price. Comps are the same town for HDB, or the same district for private, the same type, and a similar floor area. Block, floor, and project are optional on the form, so they are not required here. The published range is the middle half of those comps (P25–P75), so about half of later sales should land inside it. A sale just outside the range can still be close to the median. This sample takes up to 40 recent sales per location. Public records omit condition, so this measures error rather than proving a valuation.
Typical abs. error
9.8%
median of published estimates
Inside the middle half
42.1%
P25–P75 of comps
Declined to estimate
3.8%
82 of 2130 had fewer than 10 comps
Sales tested
2130
By segment
HDB vs private
| Segment | Sales | Typical error | In middle half | Declined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDB | 1040 | 9.8% | 44.1% | 4 |
| PRIVATE | 1090 | 9.8% | 40.1% | 78 |
By location
Towns and districts in the sample
| Location | Kind | Sales | Typical error | In middle half |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANG MO KIO | hdb | 40 | 10.4% | 40.0% |
| BEDOK | hdb | 40 | 14.2% | 35.0% |
| BISHAN | hdb | 40 | 8.9% | 32.5% |
| BUKIT BATOK | hdb | 40 | 11.6% | 35.0% |
| BUKIT MERAH | hdb | 40 | 13.8% | 55.0% |
| BUKIT PANJANG | hdb | 40 | 11.7% | 45.0% |
| BUKIT TIMAH | hdb | 40 | 5.7% | 51.3% |
| CENTRAL AREA | hdb | 40 | 18.3% | 31.6% |
| CHOA CHU KANG | hdb | 40 | 9.5% | 42.5% |
| CLEMENTI | hdb | 40 | 14.2% | 52.5% |
| GEYLANG | hdb | 40 | 10.7% | 47.5% |
| HOUGANG | hdb | 40 | 5.1% | 57.5% |
| JURONG EAST | hdb | 40 | 11.0% | 32.5% |
| JURONG WEST | hdb | 40 | 9.5% | 45.0% |
| KALLANG/WHAMPOA | hdb | 40 | 22.4% | 35.0% |
| MARINE PARADE | hdb | 40 | 6.6% | 57.5% |
| PASIR RIS | hdb | 40 | 3.2% | 57.5% |
| PUNGGOL | hdb | 40 | 9.1% | 47.5% |
| QUEENSTOWN | hdb | 40 | 20.3% | 32.5% |
| SEMBAWANG | hdb | 40 | 9.5% | 40.0% |
| SENGKANG | hdb | 40 | 7.8% | 47.5% |
| SERANGOON | hdb | 40 | 9.2% | 42.5% |
| TAMPINES | hdb | 40 | 11.2% | 57.5% |
| TOA PAYOH | hdb | 40 | 12.5% | 45.0% |
| WOODLANDS | hdb | 40 | 5.2% | 50.0% |
| YISHUN | hdb | 40 | 10.7% | 30.8% |
| D01 | private | 40 | 5.2% | 26.3% |
| D02 | private | 40 | 20.2% | 39.5% |
| D03 | private | 40 | 13.1% | 47.5% |
| D04 | private | 40 | 8.6% | 43.2% |
Computed 2026-10-10